Yankees laying in the weeds until 2011

--A lot of fuss has been made about all of the "improvements" the Red Sox have made this offseason, and that the Yankees should be worried. Lets review them.

• Marco Scutaro
• Mike Cameron
• John Lackey

- Marco Scutaro is a career .260 hitter. Sure he had a good OBP year but he will turn 35 next year and I don't think he is exactly coming into his own. This will go down as another log-jam regretful SS signing by the Sox haunted by losing Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins.

- Mike Cameron is a career .250 hitter who will be 37 years old next year, and is a career .220 hitter at Fenway Park. Not making headlines with this signing.

- John Lackey is 2 - 5 in his career in Fenway park with an ERA of 5.75 and a whip of 1.66. We'll see how this shakes out. Not a bad singing by any means, but he isn't Sandy Koufax people!

Yes its true the Yankees have made a couple of moves this offseason (trading for Curtis Granderson, signing Nick Johnson for a year, bringing Pettitte back) but the truth of the matter is they are waiting for 2011 as they did wait for 2009 to get CC, AJ Burnett, and Teixeira. The 2011 free agent class is far superior to this years, and that is when the Yankees will strike again. Look for them to resign Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and then go after guys like Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, and Josh Beckett.

We'll find out in about 12 months if I am right on this, but my guess is they let Damon walk, so Crawford can stroll right into left for 2011. Thanks for comin' out!

World Series

--The time has come for the battle of the two best teams in baseball. Even those rubes at ESPN were able to predict these two meeting at the top way back in Spring training. I am going to break down my prediction for this series as well as go over the X-Factors. Looking at the series overall, I see the Yankees winning in 6 games. First I will go over what I feel are the key X-Factors that can swing the series either way.

--Phillies X-Factors: Pedro Martinez, Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson, Ryan Howard

• Pedro Martinez - The game 2 starter will likely not be called on short rest due to his fragility, so he will likely also be the game 6 starter on full rest (if needed). If Pedro Martinez finds the fountain of youth and pitches like he did against the Dodgers, the Yankees could be in serious trouble. However, if Pedro shows his age and the Yankees get to him, that can completely flip the script and mean serious trouble for Philadelphia, especially if it goes to a game 6 where Pedro will face off against the all time postseason wins leader Andy Pettitte at Yankee Stadium.
• Brad Lidge - This has the makings of some serious excitement in the late innings, especially in the Bronx. The "Walk off Kids" versus the "Kings of the Blown Saves" (Madson and Lidge) spells disaster for the Phillies in a series where the Yankees have home field advantage. Lidge and Madson combined for 17 blown saves in 2009 as co-closers. The Yankees have had 16 walk off wins this year (one this post season). If the Yankee starters can even keep them close leading into the last couple of innings, someone better call SNL for an extra supply of "...oops I crapped my pants" for Lidge and Madson.
• Ryan Howard is a no brainer. if the Yankees can keep him in the ballpark, and hone in on his strikeout ratio (just under one in every three at bats) it will strain the Phillies offense being that he is in the middle of the lineup. The Yankees have power pitchers in CC and AJ as well as the bullpen, so if they can keep him fishing, that will lean in the Yankees overall favor. If he is given pitches to drill, the Phillies can power themselves to another title, especially using the new Yankee Stadium.

--Yankees X-Factors: AJ Burnett, Jorge Posada, Bullpen

• AJ Burnett was an X-Factor for the ALCS because if he is on, it makes it tough for any team to beat the Yankees when he and CC are pitching a minimum of 4 games in a series. It's simple if Burnett is on, the Yankees will win the series. If he is off, they better have a big offensive series or they will get beaten. Burnett may also get called on to pitch with 3 days rest, something which actually shows him to be a better performer in those situations. He is 4 - 0 with a 2.33 on three days rest in four starts in his career.
• Jorge Posada ties into Burnett. Being that the Yankees will be playing in the Phillies ballpark with no DH, the Yankees will have no choice but to have Posada catch Burnett during game 5 (all under the condition that Sabathia has already pitched game 4). How these two got along has been a discussed issue all year, and the splits show Burnett clearly throws better to Molina so Posada's defense is a huge X-Factor in this series.
• The bullpen, specifically the lefties Coke/Marte due to the power lefty hitters the Phillies throw at you, and of course Hughes and Chamberlain. It's simple if Marte and Coke can get lefties out in key spots late, and if Hughes and Chamberlain can throw strikes and regain their previous dominant form, it will compliment the Yankees pension for coming back late in games. If they show flashes of inconsistency as they have been known to do, this can single handedly kill the Yankees chance of winning the series.

All in all as I said I see the Yankees winning in six. Here's my quick game by game prediction.

• Game 1: Yankees win behind Sabathia and bullpen, low scoring game, decided in late innings.
• Game 2: Yankees win with an offensive onslaught against Pedro Martinez. Burnett wins with offensive support.
• Game 3: Philly wins at home behind a good start by Cole Hamels.
• Game 4: Sabathia stops the bleeding and shuts down the Phillies as he did to the Angels in their park, probably also fired up that he gets to hit in that one too.
• Game 5: Phillies beat Burnett, I see the tandem of Burnett and Posada on the road just stacking up way to much against the Yankees here.
• Game 6: Andy Pettitte pitches 6+ strong innings and the Yankees beat Pedro Martinez again to win their 27th World Series title. Carlie Manuel gets to keep his job though because it is not an issue of leaving Pedro in too long (google Grady Little)

LETS SEE IF IM RIGHT!!

Hairtrigger Joe, Heart vs. Handbook, and X-Factor Updates

--Hairtrigger Joe is what they would call him in the "Old West". That's right, Yankees manager Joe Girardi loves pulling his pitchers regardless of how they are performing. Imagine if you were a car salesman and you were on fire selling luxury sedans and sport coupes left and right, and then your manager taps you on the shoulder and says, "Hey Robertson, even though you are keeping our dealership alive here from the recession, I'm going to go ahead and let Aceves take over on the lot." You would probably take your plaid sports coat and throw it in his face and leave. That's probably what Dave Robertson (and every Yankees fan with half a brain) felt. There was absolutely no excuse for the pitching change there as Robertson burned through the first two batters with ease. If you watched the press conference with Girardi, his face was a lot different than his words. He knew he screwed up, and was "playing" manager a little too much last night. if you muted the press conference and just looked at his facial expression, you would think Girardi was on the verge of tears apologizing for being such a moron in that moment.

--There is a clear cut difference between Joe Girardi and his predecessor Joe Torre and it comes down to what I like to call "Heart vs. Handbook"

• The "Heart" theory is a manager being close with his players and having a "gut" feeling or faith in them coming through, regardless of a statistical matchup. It's the classic "I can get him coach" approach that Joe Torre so excellently executed with his players. Granted, Torre was known for falling in love with using one or two guys to the point of blowing their arms out.

• The "Handbook" approach is what I refer to as a manager relying too much on history, numbers, and matchups. This is the Girardi philosophy. It seems like every time a batter is coming up in the late innings, Girardi walks over to that Bible on steroids to see who does good against what. He probably checks how pitchers throw based on barometric pressure, dew point, dawn, dusk, rain, shine, or mood. This is what hurt Girardi in game 3 last night.

• Because Girardi needs to be such a smart baseball mind, he didn't look at the situation last night from a simple point of view. A three year old (aka the intelligence level of Hank Steinbrenner) could have pointed out that the kid was pitching great, so you leave him in.

--We will see if this winds up dooming the Yankees in the end. But for now, let's see what CC Sabathia can do to the Angels tonight, and if the Yankees can stop being brainwashed at the thought that Scott "ouch ouch my elbow" Kazmir is Sandy Koufax (even though they have the same initials).

X-factor grades update:

Yankees: AJ Burnett: A -, Jorge Posada: C
Angels: Chone Figgins: C, Bobby Abreu: D -

based on my X-factor predictions, the Yankees should still win the series if these players keep on these grades, especially the "pie-man" AJ Burnett.

"How about the Yankees?"

-- "How about the Yankees?" That is the quote that defines the return of the swagger that carried the dynastic Yankees teams of the late 90s and 2000. After defeating the Twins last night, YES Network's Kim Jones asked another one of her vague, vapid personality inspired questions to the shoot from the hip, pie chef AJ Burnett. Jones asked a celebrating, beer/champagne drenched Burnett, "AJ, how about the Angels?", to which Burnett immediately replied, "How about the Yankees?......How about the Yankees?" That is not cockiness, that is giving his team credit for what it has done to this point, and it shows a true sense of confidence in their abilities going into the ALCS. This is the first Yankee team since 2003 that appears to be playing with a sense of calm, with a high level of confidence that they can win every game. They have the best bullpen since 1998, the best bench since 2000, a strong front three in their starting rotation, and a lineup whose eighth batter is a guy who hit almost thirty homeruns in the regular season (Nick Swisher).


-With all of that said however, there should be a level of concern surrounding the team's performance in the playoffs thus far. Everyone looks at the recent sweep of the Twins at face value and as an easy victory. However, aside from three players the Yankees offense was stifled by Blackburn and Pavano (not even close to Lackey and Weaver who they will see in the ALCS). Let's break it down shall we?



- Posada, Jeter, and Rodriguez combined went 13 for 32 (.406) with 3 doubles, 4 homeruns, and 10 RBI in the series. The rest of the Yankees starting lineup went a combined 10 for 69 (.149) with 1 double, 2 homeruns, and 5 RBI.



-The team that during the regular season played as a cohesive offensive juggernaut was held to a .225 batting average and an emaciated .288 on base percentage against a Twins team that many would argue wasn't even a playoff caliber team. This of course does not mean the team wont hit in the next series, but it should be acknowledged since in my opinion it was gravely overlooked as the corks popped Sunday night.

-This brings it all home to what is most important in the postseason, pitching. The rotation and bullpen for the Yankees won the ALDS hands down, so AJ Burnett cheers to you in saying "How about them Yankees?", but may I suggest changing that a bit to, "How about them Yankees pitchers?"

--ALCS X-factors

• Yankees: AJ Burnett, Jorge Posada's defense.
• Angels: Chone Figgins (keeping him off base), Bobby Abreu

Joba among other things

----Quick note....the crowd at Yankee Stadium last Friday was a pretty tame one for a Yankees vs. Red Sox game but the Yankees pulled away pretty early on so the crowd (including myself) did relax quite a bit. Here's hoping for more life in the playoffs.

----On to todays topic and I think we can close the book on this experiment. Joba Chamberlain is not a starting pitcher, and if the Yankees are smart he will not be one in the ALCS nor the World Series (assuming they make it). So does that mean I'm saying give the ball to Chad Gaudin as the fourth starter in the playoffs? Yes it does. Joba Chamberlain struggled against the Kansas City Royals last night as if he were facing the Cincinnati "Big Red Machine" of the late 70s. If you look at video of the kid from late 2007 when he first came up and electrified us all, he stood tall, took no time between pitches, threw with conviction, and popped the glove at an average of 98 mph. The only time you would see the catcher walk out to the mound was probably to tell him he was bruising his catching hand. Fast-forward to last night and we saw a different person. Taking time between pitches, throwing a life-less 92mph fastball, shoulders hunched, pitching to corners (and missing).

----With all of that said I think the solution is simple....."the switch". Phil Hughes is a much more polished pitcher than Chamberlain and has more effective pitches in his arsenal than does Chamberlain. Although Hughes has been great in the 8th inning this year, I think its time to make the move. For Spring training 2010, I would tell Joba that he is in the bullpen for the entire year, no rules, no limits, 7th, 8th inning when we need you....done. This way his mind is clear and knows that when the sound guys at Yankee stadium spin Motley Crue's "Shout at the Devil", its time to roll! Joba Chamberlain is not beyond repair, but anymore destruction of what once was, and we will have lost what could have been the perfect replacement for Rivera for years to come.

Magic Numbers and Magic Stadiums

----As of today, the Yankees magic number to clinch the AL East and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs is 5. The Yankees have 9 games remaining, the Red Sox have 11. The Red Sox would need to win all 11 games and the Yankees would have to go 3-6 for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees for the division. Possible? Anything is (see 2004 ALCS, ugh). Is it likely? No.

----I personally will be at Yankee Stadium tomorrow night at the first of the final three regular season games versus the Red Sox. It should be a tough matchup for the Yankees as the bewildered Joba Chamberlain faces the utterly gritty, tough, new outlook on life cancer survivor, and overlooked Jon Lester. I will blog about the crowd atmosphere to perhaps give you a preview to the October vibe because I am sure it will be equivalent if not louder come playoff time.

----I can't believe I'm saying this but I actually think this Yankee Stadium is more of a homefield advantage for the Bombers than the old one. Perhaps the old stadium's magic blew it's last gust of glory when it had the wind knocked out of it during that fated and stunning 2004 ALCS loss? Maybe since that moment, the ghosts already headed across the street and were just waiting for the new ballpark to join it? I guess we'll wait and see.

Joe Girardi: You Can Rest in November!

-----Last night I was sitting down watching the Yankees exhilarating (sarcasm) pregame show with the frozen faced Nancy Newman, when I saw the lineup for that nights game against the Angels. To my amazement I did not see the name Matsui anywhere in the lineup. It appears as though walking twenty five feet to one spot, and swinging a bat about three times, four times a game is so exhausting that Girardi felt his hottest hitter needed a day off. Girardi earlier in the year when asked about the standings said that he doesn't pay attention to that stuff, and he has clearly proven that over the last week or more.

I don't want to hear anything about the fact that it was because the Angels were starting a lefty pitcher. Look at Matsui's numbers versus lefties and righties this year.

vs lefties:---AB=125--HR=13--RBI=46--BA.=.280--OPS=.982
vs righties:-AB=301--HR=14--RBI=41--BA.=.279--OPS=.857

The man has 60% less at bats against lefties, he averages a homerun for every nine at bats against lefties (the pace Roger Maris hit homeruns at in 1961), and has more RBI in 176 less at bats!

Nevertheless, Girardi needed to rest him. What happens next? He pinch hits him late in the game after they are already down and Matsui absolutely slaughters a pitch over 420 feet for a homerun.

This isn't the only time we've seen Girardi resting guys or deeming certain players "unavailable" for games. He does this with pitchers quite a bit. I am not even going to start talking about Joba Chamberlain and his "Baby Steps" grow chart.

I grew up hearing true stories about pitchers who would throw complete games of both games in a double header, pitchers who would throw over 350 innings/year, 250 pitches a game (yes that's a shot at you 100 pitch count) Don't bother giving me nonsense that pitchers didn't throw hard or aggressively back in the day. Bob Feller (google him if you don't know him) was a pitcher with the Indians. Since the radar gun was invented in 1941 he was consistently clocked at or above 100mph throughout the prime of his career, while at the same time making 40 starts per year, and pitching 370 innings. Face it, players today are babied and it all comes down to the dollar.

Hey Joe, turn around, it's not luxury time. The Red Sox are red hot and if you're not careful, you may remove the joy we had of making fun of the Mets for their back to back collapses by doing the same thing! Give the kid the damn ball and tell him to throw his heart out and pump his fist all he wants, give Matsui the damn bat and tell him swing for the sun and a new contract. You are in the middle of a war, and I don't think you can afford to rest your frontline soldiers if you want to win this thing. Toughen up, go out and lock this thing up already!!

Yankees Playoff Rotation outlook

----The Yankees magic number to clinch the AL East is 10. The way the magic number works is every time the Yankees win or Boston loses you take a number off. So if the Yankees were to win tonight and Boston lost, you would be looking at an 8 in the sports section while you eat your Fruity Pebbles tomorrow morning.

With that said, outside of a total collapse (see New York Mets 2007, 2008 or Red Sox 1978) the Yankees will win the AL East and due to their record being six games better than the Angels, they should clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (because the AL won the All Star game).

Taking all of these points into consideration brings me to my topic for this post....the Yankees starting rotation for the playoffs. Assuming the Yankees acheive homefield throughout, they will be granted the choice of which scheduled series to play in for the ALDS. One option gives the teams an extra day off between games one and two which changes everything. This allows both teams to use their three best starters throughout the five game series if they choose. The first question is, will the Yankees choose that schedule? The way the matchups are looking I say no, and here is why.

If the standings stay where they are come October, the Yankees will meet the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs. The schedule will be games one and two in the Bronx, games three and four in Detroit, and game five back in New York. If I were the Yankees I would take my chances with Joba Chamberlain starting game four knowing how banged up and thin the Tigers rotation is. Jarrod Washburn is on the shelf, the 20 year old Ricky Porcello is burning out faster than a six year old's birthday candle, and Nate Robertson is just back from a long injury. So if I were Joe Girardi and the Yankees, I would choose to play in the shorter scheduled series which would mean both teams would likely go to a fourth starter. Let's take a look at the likely matchups with the current rotations.

Game 1: Tigers @ Yankees - Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
Game 2: Tigers @ Yankees - Edwin Jackson vs. A.J. Burnett
Game 3: Yankees @ Tigers - Ricky Porcello vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 4: Yankees @ Tigers - Eddie Bonine vs. Joba Chamberlain

If I were the Yankees I would much rather face rookie callup Eddie Bonine than Justin Verlander in game 4, so hopefully they are smart and choose the shorter scheduled series.

Finally, the set up of the Yankee rotation. A lot of people think Pettitte should take game two knowing his reputation as the "stopper" and a big game pitcher. However if you look at the numbers both Pettitte and Burnett put up at home and on the road, it is alarming. Let's take a look.

A.J. Burnett:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 3 -----3.65------1.36----- 98----- 96
AWAY: 6 - 6 -----5.12------ 1.45----- 84----- 71

Andy Pettitte:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 4 -----4.69------ 1.48----- 94----- 70
AWAY: 8 - 2 -----3.52------ 1.22----- 84----- 70

It is clear as day, and the bottom line is Burnett is better at home and Pettitte is a straight up road dog.

Prediction: Yankees win in four games, splitting the first two at home and taking the next two in Detroit.

Talkin' Baseball with Johnny is born!

Hello friends,

This is the birth of my blog. As some of you may know I aspire to be a sports writer, so here is my outlet. Welcome one and all to my very first blog. The blog will be mostly based on baseball. I will talk about events during the season as well as hot stove topics during the off-season. Occasionally I will sprinkle in some football and other sports (not the NBA). So I hope you guys keep coming back to check out my posts, whether you love or hate them! Cheers!

- Johnny