Wednesday, October 28, 2009

World Series

--The time has come for the battle of the two best teams in baseball. Even those rubes at ESPN were able to predict these two meeting at the top way back in Spring training. I am going to break down my prediction for this series as well as go over the X-Factors. Looking at the series overall, I see the Yankees winning in 6 games. First I will go over what I feel are the key X-Factors that can swing the series either way.

--Phillies X-Factors: Pedro Martinez, Brad Lidge/Ryan Madson, Ryan Howard

  • Pedro Martinez - The game 2 starter will likely not be called on short rest due to his fragility, so he will likely also be the game 6 starter on full rest (if needed). If Pedro Martinez finds the fountain of youth and pitches like he did against the Dodgers, the Yankees could be in serious trouble. However, if Pedro shows his age and the Yankees get to him, that can completely flip the script and mean serious trouble for Philadelphia, especially if it goes to a game 6 where Pedro will face off against the all time postseason wins leader Andy Pettitte at Yankee Stadium.
  • Brad Lidge - This has the makings of some serious excitement in the late innings, especially in the Bronx. The "Walk off Kids" versus the "Kings of the Blown Saves" (Madson and Lidge) spells disaster for the Phillies in a series where the Yankees have home field advantage. Lidge and Madson combined for 17 blown saves in 2009 as co-closers. The Yankees have had 16 walk off wins this year (one this post season). If the Yankee starters can even keep them close leading into the last couple of innings, someone better call SNL for an extra supply of "...oops I crapped my pants" for Lidge and Madson.
  • Ryan Howard is a no brainer. if the Yankees can keep him in the ballpark, and hone in on his strikeout ratio (just under one in every three at bats) it will strain the Phillies offense being that he is in the middle of the lineup. The Yankees have power pitchers in CC and AJ as well as the bullpen, so if they can keep him fishing, that will lean in the Yankees overall favor. If he is given pitches to drill, the Phillies can power themselves to another title, especially using the new Yankee Stadium.

--Yankees X-Factors: AJ Burnett, Jorge Posada, Bullpen

  • AJ Burnett was an X-Factor for the ALCS because if he is on, it makes it tough for any team to beat the Yankees when he and CC are pitching a minimum of 4 games in a series. It's simple if Burnett is on, the Yankees will win the series. If he is off, they better have a big offensive series or they will get beaten. Burnett may also get called on to pitch with 3 days rest, something which actually shows him to be a better performer in those situations. He is 4 - 0 with a 2.33 on three days rest in four starts in his career.
  • Jorge Posada ties into Burnett. Being that the Yankees will be playing in the Phillies ballpark with no DH, the Yankees will have no choice but to have Posada catch Burnett during game 5 (all under the condition that Sabathia has already pitched game 4). How these two got along has been a discussed issue all year, and the splits show Burnett clearly throws better to Molina so Posada's defense is a huge X-Factor in this series.
  • The bullpen, specifically the lefties Coke/Marte due to the power lefty hitters the Phillies throw at you, and of course Hughes and Chamberlain. It's simple if Marte and Coke can get lefties out in key spots late, and if Hughes and Chamberlain can throw strikes and regain their previous dominant form, it will compliment the Yankees pension for coming back late in games. If they show flashes of inconsistency as they have been known to do, this can single handedly kill the Yankees chance of winning the series.

All in all as I said I see the Yankees winning in six. Here's my quick game by game prediction.

  • Game 1: Yankees win behind Sabathia and bullpen, low scoring game, decided in late innings.
  • Game 2: Yankees win with an offensive onslaught against Pedro Martinez. Burnett wins with offensive support.
  • Game 3: Philly wins at home behind a good start by Cole Hamels.
  • Game 4: Sabathia stops the bleeding and shuts down the Phillies as he did to the Angels in their park, probably also fired up that he gets to hit in that one too.
  • Game 5: Phillies beat Burnett, I see the tandem of Burnett and Posada on the road just stacking up way to much against the Yankees here.
  • Game 6: Andy Pettitte pitches 6+ strong innings and the Yankees beat Pedro Martinez again to win their 27th World Series title. Carlie Manuel gets to keep his job though because it is not an issue of leaving Pedro in too long (google Grady Little)

LETS SEE IF IM RIGHT!!

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