Magic Numbers and Magic Stadiums

----As of today, the Yankees magic number to clinch the AL East and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs is 5. The Yankees have 9 games remaining, the Red Sox have 11. The Red Sox would need to win all 11 games and the Yankees would have to go 3-6 for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees for the division. Possible? Anything is (see 2004 ALCS, ugh). Is it likely? No.

----I personally will be at Yankee Stadium tomorrow night at the first of the final three regular season games versus the Red Sox. It should be a tough matchup for the Yankees as the bewildered Joba Chamberlain faces the utterly gritty, tough, new outlook on life cancer survivor, and overlooked Jon Lester. I will blog about the crowd atmosphere to perhaps give you a preview to the October vibe because I am sure it will be equivalent if not louder come playoff time.

----I can't believe I'm saying this but I actually think this Yankee Stadium is more of a homefield advantage for the Bombers than the old one. Perhaps the old stadium's magic blew it's last gust of glory when it had the wind knocked out of it during that fated and stunning 2004 ALCS loss? Maybe since that moment, the ghosts already headed across the street and were just waiting for the new ballpark to join it? I guess we'll wait and see.

Joe Girardi: You Can Rest in November!

-----Last night I was sitting down watching the Yankees exhilarating (sarcasm) pregame show with the frozen faced Nancy Newman, when I saw the lineup for that nights game against the Angels. To my amazement I did not see the name Matsui anywhere in the lineup. It appears as though walking twenty five feet to one spot, and swinging a bat about three times, four times a game is so exhausting that Girardi felt his hottest hitter needed a day off. Girardi earlier in the year when asked about the standings said that he doesn't pay attention to that stuff, and he has clearly proven that over the last week or more.

I don't want to hear anything about the fact that it was because the Angels were starting a lefty pitcher. Look at Matsui's numbers versus lefties and righties this year.

vs lefties:---AB=125--HR=13--RBI=46--BA.=.280--OPS=.982
vs righties:-AB=301--HR=14--RBI=41--BA.=.279--OPS=.857

The man has 60% less at bats against lefties, he averages a homerun for every nine at bats against lefties (the pace Roger Maris hit homeruns at in 1961), and has more RBI in 176 less at bats!

Nevertheless, Girardi needed to rest him. What happens next? He pinch hits him late in the game after they are already down and Matsui absolutely slaughters a pitch over 420 feet for a homerun.

This isn't the only time we've seen Girardi resting guys or deeming certain players "unavailable" for games. He does this with pitchers quite a bit. I am not even going to start talking about Joba Chamberlain and his "Baby Steps" grow chart.

I grew up hearing true stories about pitchers who would throw complete games of both games in a double header, pitchers who would throw over 350 innings/year, 250 pitches a game (yes that's a shot at you 100 pitch count) Don't bother giving me nonsense that pitchers didn't throw hard or aggressively back in the day. Bob Feller (google him if you don't know him) was a pitcher with the Indians. Since the radar gun was invented in 1941 he was consistently clocked at or above 100mph throughout the prime of his career, while at the same time making 40 starts per year, and pitching 370 innings. Face it, players today are babied and it all comes down to the dollar.

Hey Joe, turn around, it's not luxury time. The Red Sox are red hot and if you're not careful, you may remove the joy we had of making fun of the Mets for their back to back collapses by doing the same thing! Give the kid the damn ball and tell him to throw his heart out and pump his fist all he wants, give Matsui the damn bat and tell him swing for the sun and a new contract. You are in the middle of a war, and I don't think you can afford to rest your frontline soldiers if you want to win this thing. Toughen up, go out and lock this thing up already!!

Yankees Playoff Rotation outlook

----The Yankees magic number to clinch the AL East is 10. The way the magic number works is every time the Yankees win or Boston loses you take a number off. So if the Yankees were to win tonight and Boston lost, you would be looking at an 8 in the sports section while you eat your Fruity Pebbles tomorrow morning.

With that said, outside of a total collapse (see New York Mets 2007, 2008 or Red Sox 1978) the Yankees will win the AL East and due to their record being six games better than the Angels, they should clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (because the AL won the All Star game).

Taking all of these points into consideration brings me to my topic for this post....the Yankees starting rotation for the playoffs. Assuming the Yankees acheive homefield throughout, they will be granted the choice of which scheduled series to play in for the ALDS. One option gives the teams an extra day off between games one and two which changes everything. This allows both teams to use their three best starters throughout the five game series if they choose. The first question is, will the Yankees choose that schedule? The way the matchups are looking I say no, and here is why.

If the standings stay where they are come October, the Yankees will meet the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs. The schedule will be games one and two in the Bronx, games three and four in Detroit, and game five back in New York. If I were the Yankees I would take my chances with Joba Chamberlain starting game four knowing how banged up and thin the Tigers rotation is. Jarrod Washburn is on the shelf, the 20 year old Ricky Porcello is burning out faster than a six year old's birthday candle, and Nate Robertson is just back from a long injury. So if I were Joe Girardi and the Yankees, I would choose to play in the shorter scheduled series which would mean both teams would likely go to a fourth starter. Let's take a look at the likely matchups with the current rotations.

Game 1: Tigers @ Yankees - Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
Game 2: Tigers @ Yankees - Edwin Jackson vs. A.J. Burnett
Game 3: Yankees @ Tigers - Ricky Porcello vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 4: Yankees @ Tigers - Eddie Bonine vs. Joba Chamberlain

If I were the Yankees I would much rather face rookie callup Eddie Bonine than Justin Verlander in game 4, so hopefully they are smart and choose the shorter scheduled series.

Finally, the set up of the Yankee rotation. A lot of people think Pettitte should take game two knowing his reputation as the "stopper" and a big game pitcher. However if you look at the numbers both Pettitte and Burnett put up at home and on the road, it is alarming. Let's take a look.

A.J. Burnett:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 3 -----3.65------1.36----- 98----- 96
AWAY: 6 - 6 -----5.12------ 1.45----- 84----- 71

Andy Pettitte:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 4 -----4.69------ 1.48----- 94----- 70
AWAY: 8 - 2 -----3.52------ 1.22----- 84----- 70

It is clear as day, and the bottom line is Burnett is better at home and Pettitte is a straight up road dog.

Prediction: Yankees win in four games, splitting the first two at home and taking the next two in Detroit.

Talkin' Baseball with Johnny is born!

Hello friends,

This is the birth of my blog. As some of you may know I aspire to be a sports writer, so here is my outlet. Welcome one and all to my very first blog. The blog will be mostly based on baseball. I will talk about events during the season as well as hot stove topics during the off-season. Occasionally I will sprinkle in some football and other sports (not the NBA). So I hope you guys keep coming back to check out my posts, whether you love or hate them! Cheers!

- Johnny