Yankees Playoff Rotation outlook

----The Yankees magic number to clinch the AL East is 10. The way the magic number works is every time the Yankees win or Boston loses you take a number off. So if the Yankees were to win tonight and Boston lost, you would be looking at an 8 in the sports section while you eat your Fruity Pebbles tomorrow morning.

With that said, outside of a total collapse (see New York Mets 2007, 2008 or Red Sox 1978) the Yankees will win the AL East and due to their record being six games better than the Angels, they should clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (because the AL won the All Star game).

Taking all of these points into consideration brings me to my topic for this post....the Yankees starting rotation for the playoffs. Assuming the Yankees acheive homefield throughout, they will be granted the choice of which scheduled series to play in for the ALDS. One option gives the teams an extra day off between games one and two which changes everything. This allows both teams to use their three best starters throughout the five game series if they choose. The first question is, will the Yankees choose that schedule? The way the matchups are looking I say no, and here is why.

If the standings stay where they are come October, the Yankees will meet the Tigers in the first round of the playoffs. The schedule will be games one and two in the Bronx, games three and four in Detroit, and game five back in New York. If I were the Yankees I would take my chances with Joba Chamberlain starting game four knowing how banged up and thin the Tigers rotation is. Jarrod Washburn is on the shelf, the 20 year old Ricky Porcello is burning out faster than a six year old's birthday candle, and Nate Robertson is just back from a long injury. So if I were Joe Girardi and the Yankees, I would choose to play in the shorter scheduled series which would mean both teams would likely go to a fourth starter. Let's take a look at the likely matchups with the current rotations.

Game 1: Tigers @ Yankees - Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
Game 2: Tigers @ Yankees - Edwin Jackson vs. A.J. Burnett
Game 3: Yankees @ Tigers - Ricky Porcello vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 4: Yankees @ Tigers - Eddie Bonine vs. Joba Chamberlain

If I were the Yankees I would much rather face rookie callup Eddie Bonine than Justin Verlander in game 4, so hopefully they are smart and choose the shorter scheduled series.

Finally, the set up of the Yankee rotation. A lot of people think Pettitte should take game two knowing his reputation as the "stopper" and a big game pitcher. However if you look at the numbers both Pettitte and Burnett put up at home and on the road, it is alarming. Let's take a look.

A.J. Burnett:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 3 -----3.65------1.36----- 98----- 96
AWAY: 6 - 6 -----5.12------ 1.45----- 84----- 71

Andy Pettitte:

--------W - L------ERA-----WHIP-------IP-----SO
HOME: 5 - 4 -----4.69------ 1.48----- 94----- 70
AWAY: 8 - 2 -----3.52------ 1.22----- 84----- 70

It is clear as day, and the bottom line is Burnett is better at home and Pettitte is a straight up road dog.

Prediction: Yankees win in four games, splitting the first two at home and taking the next two in Detroit.